Visiting Professor of Economics, Resident Faculty, & Seminar Chair, Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University; Member of the Executive Board, German Bundesbank (2002-2012)
Tensions between the U.S. and China have been rising during both the Trump and Biden administrations. The Russian invasion of Ukraine added substantially to the impact of these conflicts on Europe. Inevitably, geopolitics bears upon economics. De-risking global value chains is the new imperative. Europe, characterized by its small, open economies, is profoundly challenged by these new background conditions. The challenges come in two dimensions. They concern national security: How to organize and pay for significantly increased demands on public budgets? Concurrently, national security prerogatives affect economic models: How to adapt Europe’s export-oriented economies to a less benign trade environment?