For centuries, the Western Balkans have been a fault line of empires, ideologies, and global conflicts. It was here, in Sarajevo, that a gunshot in 1914 set the world ablaze, and here, in the 1990s, that Europe witnessed its bloodiest conflict since World War II until Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. This historically significant region, with its complex cultural and political dynamics, remains a geopolitical chessboard and a linchpin in European security and integration efforts, with the EU, NATO, Russia, and China vying for influence.

As the United States shifts its foreign policy focus to China and the Middle East, a power vacuum is emerging in the Balkans. Beijing has invested billions dollars in infrastructure, Moscow fans nationalist rhetoric, and Brussels, despite its rhetorical commitments, has stalled on enlargement. Against this geopolitical backdrop, the European Union faces a critical decision: assert a leadership role in integrating the Western Balkans into the EU or cede the region to external powers whose interests run counter to European stability and democratic values.