And here we go again. President-elect Donald Trump wasted little time in signaling to Americans, through his Cabinet nominations and White House appointments, that he plans to move quickly to act on his most extreme promises. What kind of United States will we have in a year, or in four? How will the country and its democratic institutions change? What are the chances he doesn’t succeed? And what if he does—and an apathetic, exhausted, and inward-looking populace shrugs? We could think of no one better to ask these questions than Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, the Harvard scholars who were co-authors of the 2018 bestseller How Democracies Die. They spoke with editor Michael Tomasky on November 25. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
MICHAEL TOMASKY: I want to start with this question. I was struck by this passage in the last chapter of How Democracies Die, where you posit three possible futures of a post-Trump America. One was the optimistic one. One was kind of a wash. Then another, which was numbered your second, a much darker future, was “one in which President Trump and the Republicans continue to win with a white nationalist appeal. Under this scenario, a pro-Trump GOP would retain the presidency, both houses of Congress, and the vast majority of statehouses, and it would eventually gain a solid majority in the Supreme Court.”
Well … I’m not sure when you wrote that whether you thought that would come true, but here we are. And you say that this scenario could lead to confrontation, even violent conflict, which in turn could lead to heightened police repression. Daniel, now that this scenario is about to be reality, what’s your assessment of our situation in this country?
DANIEL ZIBLATT: When we wrote that, we didn’t think it was the most likely scenario. But as you say, here we are, and I think there are serious reasons to have concerns. There continue to be sources of resilience that we’re happy to talk about. One point I would make at the outset is that the need to rewrite the Constitution, say à la Viktor Orbán, is probably not the thing that’s concerning at this moment, because our Constitution works pretty well for the party that’s in control of all branches of government, and really the more serious concern is the risk of those in power going after the democratic opposition in ways that undermine competition. So it’s not about changing the rules, but really attacking civil society, attacking the opposition. That’s something that we really didn’t spell out in that scenario back in 2018, but it’s something that is top of mind for me right now.
