By Alberto Alemanno, The Guardian
Many observers breathed a sigh of relief earlier this year when the mainstream, pro-EU alliance – of centre-left, centre-right and liberal parties – held on to its majority in the European parliament elections. These parties, which have governed Europe for the past four decades, are to endorse Ursula von der Leyen’s new European Commission by the end of the month, with the declared goal of making the European economy greener, more competitive and more secure.
Yet behind this business as usual account of EU political power lies a different, less reassuring reality. Von der Leyen’s commission has not even taken office yet, but already the far right is punching well above its weight. And it will be emboldened by the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
The new European parliament, which has the job of endorsing the Von der Leyen 2.0 commission, is the most right wing in EU history. More than half of its members are from Von der Leyen’s centre-right European People’s party (EPP) and from far-right groups that include the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which brings together Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s party with more extreme far-right parties such as France’s (Reconquête) and the Sweden Democrats. There is also the Patriots for Europe (PfE) group, co-led by Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orbán, and the even more extreme Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), dominated by Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland.
The same is true for the other two main institutions that share executive power in Europe. More than half the members of the incoming EU commission (each proposed by one member state) and the EU council are from the right. This rightward shift in the balance of power is unprecedented and could mean the end of the centrist majority that has governed Europe since the EU’s creation. While Von der Leyen made public pledges in her first term to stick to the centre of politics, the incoming commission may be tempted to look to the right of the traditional EPP conservative bloc to pursue its political objectives.
Why is this? Coalitions in the EU parliament have historically been built issue by issue, and no commission has ever relied on a predetermined parliamentary majority during its five-year mandate. This means that votes from the far right will probably offer a way for Von der Leyen to get some of her most conservative policies over the line, while maintaining the veneer of respectability provided by mainstream EU parties’ support.
