France finds itself yet again mired in a political crisis. Prime Minister François Bayrou, unable to secure a majority of votes in the National Assembly in favor of his proposed austerity budget, has called for a vote of confidence on Monday, Sept. 8—a vote he is all but certain to lose. If the government falls, France will have run through four governments since President Emmanuel Macron’s reelection in 2022.
Will Macron respond to this latest political crisis by again dissolving parliament, as he did when faced with a similar impasse in the summer of 2024? Or will he be forced to resign, as influential voices across the political spectrum are urging him to do? Neither seems to offer a solution for France’s political impasse—but nor does any foreseeable alternative.
Macron himself created the impossible position he now finds himself in. France has been saddled with a hung parliament since June 2024, when he dissolved the National Assembly in the hope of halting the seemingly inexorable rise of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), the party of his two-time presidential rival, Marine Le Pen. The move backfired: The RN won more seats than ever before, and no stable majority coalition has emerged over the past 15 months.
If Bayrou’s government falls on Monday, the constitution allows Macron to dissolve parliament again. If he does, however, he will still find himself on the horns of a dilemma.
On the one hand, the RN could this time win enough seats to oblige the president to appoint Jordan Bardella as prime minister. Since Macron has always presented himself as the only French political leader capable of halting the rise of the far right, this would mark the ultimate failure of his presidency, even if he limps on for another year and a half as the nominal but powerless head of state.
On the other hand, if Bardella does not become prime minister, Macron will have to choose a head of government from one of the other parties. Since Macron’s reelection in 2022, these parties have shown themselves to be unable or unwilling to compromise sufficiently to make progress on the pressing issues of the day, including the budget, pension reform, immigration, and environmental protection.
